Kerosene — Price History
About Kerosene Prices
Kerosene is a refined petroleum distillate used globally as jet fuel, heating fuel, and industrial solvent. It is one of the most important middle-distillate products in the energy supply chain, sitting between gasoline and diesel in the refining process.
Kerosene prices are benchmarked against the NYMEX No. 2 Heating Oil futures contract (HO=F), quoted in U.S. dollars per gallon. This contract serves as the primary pricing reference for kerosene, jet fuel (Jet A-1), and diesel across global markets.
Prices are driven by crude oil costs (which account for ~60% of the final price), refinery margins, seasonal heating demand, jet fuel consumption, geopolitical supply disruptions, and refinery maintenance schedules. Winter months typically see higher prices due to heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere.
Kerosene Market Overview
Global Jet Fuel Demand
~8 million bbl/day
Heating Oil Demand (US)
~550K bbl/day (winter)
Crude Oil Cost Share
~60% of price
Top Consumer
United States
Peak Season
October — March
NYMEX Contract
HO=F (42,000 gal)
Kerosene demand is split between aviation (as Jet A-1 fuel) and residential/commercial heating. The aviation sector accounts for the majority of global kerosene consumption, with demand growing steadily as air travel expands. Heating oil demand is highly seasonal and concentrated in the northeastern United States and northern Europe, creating predictable winter price spikes.
Kerosene Historical Price Milestones
2008 — Oil Supercycle Peak
$4.18/gal
2009 — Financial Crisis Low
$1.15/gal
2014 — Shale Oversupply
$3.10 → $1.60/gal
2020 — COVID Collapse
$0.68/gal
2022 — Ukraine Supply Shock
$5.83/gal
15-Year CAGR
~3.5%
Kerosene prices closely track crude oil but with amplified volatility due to refining margins and seasonal demand. The 2022 Ukraine conflict caused the sharpest spike in heating oil history as European buyers scrambled to replace Russian diesel and heating fuel supplies. COVID-19 temporarily collapsed jet fuel demand by over 60%, dragging kerosene prices to multi-decade lows.
Ways to Gain Exposure to Kerosene Prices
Futures
NYMEX HO (Heating Oil)
42,000 gallons per contract
Energy ETFs
USO, XLE, VDE
Broad energy sector exposure
Refiner Stocks
VLO, MPC, PSX
Refining margin exposure
Airline Stocks
DAL, UAL, LUV
Inverse jet fuel exposure
Direct kerosene exposure is available through NYMEX Heating Oil futures (HO=F). Refiner stocks like Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) benefit from wide crack spreads when kerosene prices are high relative to crude. Airline stocks move inversely — high jet fuel costs compress airline margins, making them a natural hedge. Broad energy ETFs offer diversified exposure across the petroleum product chain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between kerosene and heating oil?
Kerosene and heating oil are both middle-distillate petroleum products, but kerosene (also called No. 1 fuel oil) is a lighter, more refined product with a lower sulfur content. Heating oil (No. 2 fuel oil) is slightly heavier and denser. Both are priced off the same NYMEX HO=F futures contract. Jet fuel (Jet A-1) is essentially highly refined kerosene meeting strict aviation purity standards.
What drives kerosene prices?
Kerosene prices are primarily driven by crude oil costs (~60% of the price), refinery capacity and crack spreads, seasonal heating demand (October–March), jet fuel consumption from aviation, geopolitical disruptions to supply, and government fuel taxes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 demonstrated how supply disruptions can cause extreme price spikes when European refiners lost access to Russian diesel and heating fuel.
Why are kerosene prices seasonal?
Kerosene prices exhibit strong seasonality because of winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere. The northeastern United States and northern Europe are the largest heating oil markets. Prices typically rise from October through March as inventories are drawn down, and decline in spring/summer when heating demand drops. Cold snaps can cause sudden price spikes as demand surges beyond available supply.
How is kerosene used as jet fuel?
Aviation-grade kerosene (Jet A-1) is the standard fuel for commercial jet engines worldwide. It accounts for approximately 8 million barrels per day of global demand. Jet fuel is essentially highly refined kerosene that meets strict specifications for freezing point, flash point, thermal stability, and contaminant levels. Jet fuel prices are typically priced at a premium to the heating oil benchmark.
Can I invest in kerosene prices?
Yes, through several channels. The most direct is NYMEX Heating Oil futures (HO=F), which serve as the kerosene benchmark. Energy ETFs like USO provide broad crude oil exposure. Refiner stocks (Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66) profit when refining margins are wide. Conversely, airline stocks move inversely to kerosene prices — high jet fuel costs reduce airline profitability, while falling kerosene prices boost their margins.
Risk Warning
Commodity prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. The information on this site is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Historical price data shown is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Commodity prices are subject to market volatility and external factors.