Sugar #11 — 歷史價格
About Sugar Prices
Sugar is one of the world's largest agricultural commodity markets, with global production of approximately 180 million tonnes per year (in raw sugar equivalent) and a market value of $40–55 billion at typical prices. Sugar is produced from two primary crops — sugarcane (~80% of global supply) and sugar beet (~20%) — and is consumed in virtually every country in the world as table sugar, in industrial food and beverage applications, and (in Brazil) as a feedstock for ethanol fuel production. Sugar's combination of large absolute volume, geographic supply concentration in tropical sugarcane-producing countries, and the unique ethanol-versus-sugar arbitrage in Brazil makes it one of the most fundamentally interesting agricultural commodities to trade.
Two reference contracts dominate global sugar pricing. The ICE Sugar No. 11 contract (Raw Sugar, ticker SB), traded on Intercontinental Exchange in New York, is the global benchmark for raw cane sugar — the unrefined product that is shipped from producing countries to refineries in importing countries. The contract is denominated in U.S. cents per pound, with 112,000-lb lot size (~$22,000 of notional per contract at recent prices), and physical delivery FOB (free on board) from approved origin ports. ICE Sugar No. 11 is one of the most-liquid agricultural futures globally, typically trading 100,000–250,000 contracts per day. The ICE Sugar No. 5 contract (White Sugar, ticker QW), traded on Intercontinental Exchange Europe in London, is the global benchmark for refined white sugar — the finished product ready for industrial or consumer use. The No. 5 contract is denominated in U.S. dollars per metric tonne, with 50-tonne lot size, and physical delivery FOB from approved origin ports.
The 'white premium' — the price spread between Sugar No. 5 (White) and Sugar No. 11 (Raw, converted to equivalent dollar/tonne) — is one of the most-watched dynamics in the sugar market because it captures refining margins, sugar processing capacity, and regional refining demand all in one number. Historical white premium has averaged $80–110/t; the spread has reached as high as $190/t during periods of constrained refining capacity (notably the 2022-2023 period when sanctions on Russia removed several major refineries from EU-eligible supply) and as low as $40/t during refined-sugar oversupply. The white premium is one of the cleaner pure-fundamentals relative-value trades in the agricultural commodity space, and is actively traded by physical refiners, traders, and macro hedge funds.
Sugar Market Overview
Brazil
~20% of Global Production (largest exporter)
India
~17% of Production (largest grower)
China + Thailand + EU
~25% combined
ICE No.11 Raw + ICE No.5 White
Two Benchmarks
Brazil is the world's largest sugar exporter, producing roughly 37 million tonnes per year and exporting about 28 million tonnes (~70% of global trade). Brazilian sugar production is uniquely characterised by the ethanol arbitrage: roughly half of Brazilian sugarcane harvest is processed into ethanol fuel rather than sugar, with the split determined seasonally by relative prices. When Brazilian gasoline prices are high (or when ICE Sugar No.11 prices are low), more cane goes to ethanol; when sugar prices are high, more cane goes to sugar. This 'flex' provides a unique price elasticity for global sugar supply that is partially substitutable with Brazilian energy demand. India is the world's largest sugar grower at roughly 32 million tonnes per year but exports a much smaller share (~6–9 million tonnes) because of domestic consumption demand and frequent government export restrictions when domestic prices rise. China, Thailand, and the European Union are the next-largest producers (each ~8–11 million tonnes).
On the demand side, India is the world's largest sugar consumer at ~30 million tonnes per year, followed by the EU (~17 million), China (~16 million), the U.S. (~11 million), and Brazil (~12 million). The major sugar-importing regions are the Middle East, North Africa, the Indian Ocean nations, and East Asia — countries that consume sugar but do not produce enough domestically. The refining capacity bottleneck is significant: many sugar-importing regions have insufficient refining capacity, so they import REFINED (white) sugar at premium prices rather than raw sugar that they would need to refine. This bifurcation between raw and refined sugar markets is the primary reason the two contracts (No. 11 and No. 5) exist as separate benchmarks and is the underlying driver of the white premium dynamic.
Sugar Historical Price Milestones
1974
Inflation-era peak above 60 cents/lb (raw)
1980
Second inflation spike above 45 cents/lb
2010–2011
Brazil drought peak at 36 cents/lb
2016
Brazil drought spike to 23 cents/lb
2023
All-time high (since 2011) above 28 cents/lb
2024–2025
Range-bound 17–22 cents/lb
Sugar has historically been one of the most volatile agricultural commodities, with massive multi-decade range. The 1974 inflation-era peak above 60 cents/lb for raw sugar is the contract's all-time high — driven by Cuban embargo dynamics, U.S. inflation pressures, and a global supply shortfall. The 1980 secondary peak above 45 cents/lb reflected similar conditions. After 1980, sugar entered a prolonged structural decline, trading mostly in the 5–15 cents/lb range for the next 25+ years as global production expanded and demand grew slowly. The 2010–2011 rally pushed Sugar No.11 to a peak of 36 cents/lb in February 2011, driven by Brazilian drought, weak Indian production, and the broad commodity-supercycle inflation. The 2016 spike to 23 cents/lb came from another Brazilian production shortfall. The 2023 rally to 28+ cents/lb was the most recent meaningful spike, driven by Indian export restrictions (the government banned exports in late 2022) and weather-related Asian production shortfalls. By 2024–2025 the contract had retraced to a 17–22 cents/lb band as Brazilian production recovered to record levels and Indian export restrictions partially eased. Through-cycle, sugar has roughly doubled in nominal price since 2002 (from ~8 cents/lb to ~18 cents/lb) — modest by commodity standards, reflecting the secular tension between supply expansion and demand growth. The white sugar contract has shown a generally similar long-run pattern, with the white premium ($/t spread to raw equivalent) fluctuating in a $40-190/t range.
Ways to Invest in Sugar
ICE Sugar No.11 (SB)
Raw sugar, NY benchmark
ICE Sugar No.5 (QW)
White sugar, London benchmark
CFDs on PrimeXBT and brokers
Retail leveraged access
Sugar ETFs
CANE (Teucrium Sugar Fund), SGG (deprecated)
Sugar producer equities
Cosan (CSAN), Tereos (private), Mitr Phol (private)
Diversified processor equities
Wilmar (F34.SI), Olam (OLG.SI), ADM (ADM)
ICE Sugar No.11 (112,000-lb lots, ~$22,000 of notional per contract at recent prices) is the most-liquid soft-commodity futures contract globally, with deep two-way flow from physical sugar producers, refiners, traders, and CTAs. ICE Sugar No.5 (50-tonne lots, ~$22,000 of notional per contract at $450/t) is somewhat less liquid but still very tradeable, typically 25,000-50,000 contracts per day. Retail traders typically access sugar via CFDs at PrimeXBT and similar platforms, where leverage is 5-10× and contract sizes scale. The Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE) is the most-liquid pure-play sugar ETF, holding ICE No.11 contracts spread across multiple delivery months to reduce contango drag. Equity-account exposure to sugar is best via Cosan (Brazil's largest integrated sugar-ethanol producer, ~10% global market share through its subsidiary Raízen JV with Shell), Wilmar (the world's largest palm oil refiner with significant sugar exposure), and Olam Group (large sugar trader). The white premium spread (long No.5 / short No.11) is one of the cleaner pure-fundamentals trades for sophisticated traders.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between Raw and White sugar?
Raw sugar (also called raws or sugar No.11) is partially-refined cane sugar that retains some natural molasses content — typically 96–99% sucrose purity, with a yellowish-brown colour. Raw sugar is the bulk-trade product shipped from cane-producing countries to refineries in importing countries, where it is further refined into white sugar suitable for consumer and industrial use. White sugar (sugar No.5) is the fully-refined finished product at 99.7+% sucrose purity, with a brilliant-white appearance, suitable for direct retail sale or industrial use without further processing. The two markets trade as separate contracts because not all sugar consumers want raw sugar (most require refined) and not all producers can deliver refined (refining requires significant capital investment in refineries). The price spread between them — the white premium — reflects the value of refining and is one of the most-watched relative-value indicators in the sugar market.
How does the Brazil ethanol-sugar arbitrage work?
Brazilian sugar mills can switch their cane processing between sugar production and ethanol production with relatively flexibility — typically allocating 40-55% of cane to ethanol and 45-60% to sugar, with the split determined by relative prices. When Brazilian gasoline prices are high (which makes ethanol more profitable as a fuel substitute) or when ICE Sugar No.11 prices are low, more cane goes to ethanol. When sugar prices are high or gasoline prices are low, more cane goes to sugar. This unique 'flex' makes Brazilian sugar production partially substitutable with Brazilian energy demand, providing a unique price elasticity for global sugar supply. Brazilian traders calculate the 'sugar-ethanol parity' continuously and use it to forecast Brazilian sugar export volumes. The relationship is one of the most important fundamental drivers of global sugar prices and adds another dimension to the cross-commodity correlations between sugar, ethanol, and crude oil.
Why does India ban sugar exports?
Sugar is a politically sensitive commodity in India — domestic sugar prices are an important component of consumer food inflation, and the government uses sugar export controls as a policy lever to keep domestic prices stable. When Indian production is strong and domestic prices are low, the government allows generous export quotas. When Indian production is weak or domestic prices rise, the government restricts or bans exports to keep more sugar at home. The 2022-23 season's complete export ban removed ~3-4 million tonnes from global trade, contributing materially to the 2023 ICE No.11 rally above 28 cents/lb. Indian export policy is announced annually and is one of the most-watched events in the sugar trading calendar. The structural tension between Indian production scale (the world's largest) and Indian export reliability (chronically constrained by government policy) makes India a less predictable supply source than Brazil.
How big is the global ethanol market?
Global fuel ethanol production runs approximately 110 billion litres per year, dominated by the United States (~58 billion litres, made from corn) and Brazil (~33 billion litres, made from sugarcane). The U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets are largely independent — U.S. corn ethanol is mandated by the Renewable Fuel Standard for blending into gasoline, while Brazilian cane ethanol is freely competitive with gasoline as a vehicle fuel. The Brazilian ethanol-sugar relationship is the primary cross-commodity dynamic in the sugar market: rising oil prices push gasoline higher, which makes ethanol more profitable as a fuel, which incentivizes Brazilian mills to allocate more cane to ethanol production, which reduces Brazilian sugar exports, which supports ICE Sugar No.11 prices. The full chain — crude oil → Brazilian gasoline → ethanol-sugar parity → Brazilian sugar exports → ICE No.11 — typically takes 3-9 months to fully play through.
What is the white premium and how do I trade it?
The white premium is the price spread between Sugar No. 5 (White, $/t) and Sugar No. 11 (Raw, converted from cents/lb to $/t by multiplying by 22.0462). It captures the value of refining services and is the cleanest pure-fundamentals trade in the sugar market. Historical average: $80-110/t. During periods of refining tightness (2022-2023 post-Russia sanctions when several major EU-relevant refineries became non-deliverable), the white premium widened to $190+/t. During refined-sugar oversupply periods, it can narrow to $40/t or below. Spread trades (long No.5, short No.11) are popular among physical refiners hedging margin, traders expressing fundamental views, and macro hedge funds. The spread is also accessible to retail traders via CFD products at PrimeXBT and similar platforms that offer separate raw and white sugar exposures combinable into spread positions.
Is sugar bad for prices long-term due to health trends?
Health-related sugar consumption decline is a long-standing structural concern but has played out more slowly than predicted. Per-capita refined-sugar consumption in developed economies has declined modestly since the 2010s (down ~10-15% in the U.S. and EU), but emerging-market consumption growth has more than offset this decline. The introduction of sugar taxes (UK, several U.S. cities, Mexico) and reformulation efforts by major beverage companies (Coca-Cola, PepsiCo reducing sugar content in standard sodas) have created modest demand pressure but with limited aggregate impact. The long-term outlook depends on (1) the trajectory of obesity and diabetes prevalence, (2) regulatory action by major consuming countries, and (3) substitution to artificial and natural non-sugar sweeteners (sucralose, erythritol, allulose, stevia). Most analyst forecasts show sugar demand growing modestly through 2030 with emerging-market demand more than offsetting developed-market declines.
Why are there separate contracts for white sugar (London) and raw sugar (NY)?
Historical reasons: the New York Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange (NYCSCE, now part of ICE) developed Sugar No.11 as the U.S. benchmark for raw cane sugar in 1914. The London Sugar Terminal Market Association (later ICE Endex, now ICE Europe) developed Sugar No.5 as the European benchmark for refined white sugar in the 1980s. The two contracts serve different physical-trade flows — No.11 prices the cargoes that move from producing countries to refineries, while No.5 prices the finished-product trade from refineries to industrial consumers. The two markets retain separate identities because (1) the physical trade flows are genuinely different, (2) the refining margin captured by the white premium has independent fundamentals, and (3) currency denomination differs ($USD/lb vs $USD/t). Both contracts are now under ICE and physical arbitrage is well-developed, but they remain distinct financial instruments.
Can I trade sugar through ETFs?
The Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE) is the most-liquid pure-play sugar ETF in the U.S., holding ICE Sugar No.11 contracts across multiple delivery months (a strategy that reduces but doesn't eliminate contango drag versus single-front-month rolling ETFs). The iPath Sugar ETN (SGG) was popular for years but was delisted in 2020 due to declining AUM. There is no pure-play white sugar ETF available to retail investors. Broad agricultural ETFs (DBA, JJA, GSG) include sugar at modest weightings. For pure sugar exposure, CANE (long-only via ETF) and CFDs (long or short via PrimeXBT and similar platforms) are the practical retail routes. Equity exposure via Cosan or Wilmar is partial — sugar is only a portion of their overall business mix.
Risk Warning
Sugar prices are highly volatile and sensitive to Brazilian weather (cane production), Indian monsoon dynamics, Indian government export policy changes, crude oil prices (via the Brazilian ethanol-sugar arbitrage), and currency movements. Sugar has historically delivered annualised price moves of 30-40%, with episodic 2× spikes on supply shocks. Leveraged CFD and futures products amplify both gains and losses; positions can be liquidated entirely on volatility spikes that have happened repeatedly in this market. The information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before trading any commodity. Past price action is not indicative of future results.